Cumulative Model

We are currently enduring a natural experiment on the effects of higher gas prices. While it has spurred movement toward more efficient technology, it has brought about some severe consequences that will need to be dealt with.

Last month it was reported that driving in the US was down 4.3% in March compared to last year. What everyone missed was that gasoline consumption wasn't. It was down less than 2%.

For the year, gasoline consumption is down little more than 1/2% [correction, DOE now shows close to 1% less fuel consumed for the year].

We aren't using less fuel, we're getting less done with the fuel we are using.

If the most efficient driving was being eliminated, it still couldn't explain the large difference in fuel efficiency. The driving being cut would need to be several times more efficient than normal to have such a negligible impact on fuel consumption. This is not plausible.

Among the reasons: Less efficient fuel mixtures may be being used; People are acting on bad advice. We've known for awhile now that accelerating faster is more fuel efficient (this is even before considering the beneficial effects on traffic), yet people believe the opposite; People may be driving more at high traffic times to generate needed income and be too tired and poor to drive at other times; And, during the economic slow down, communities may be neglecting good traffic management (e.g. not timing traffic lights properly).

We also need to consider whether higher prices will strengthen the movement toward more efficient technology or have little additional effect. (i.e. Has the move already happened and will further price pressure be of no value? After the crunch of the 70's, efficiency contitued to improve greatly despite falling prices.)

Additionally, we need to realize that in the mid-term, our current vehicle fleet and the infrastructure to produce more aren’t suddenly going to disappear. New tech won’t wash out these adverse effects.

[The gasoline consumption data can be found here: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/xls/pet_cons_wpsup_k_w.xls

It's in excel format. See U.S. Weekly Finished Motor Gasoline Product Supplied (Thousand Barrels per Day).

The Energy Information Administration defines Production Supplied as their calculation of consumption:

Products Supplied Approximately represents consumption of petroleum products because it measures the disappearance of these products from primary sources, i.e., refineries, natural gas processing plants, blending plants, pipelines, and bulk terminals. In general, product supplied of each product in any given period is computed as follows: field production, plus refinery production, plus imports, plus unaccounted for crude oil, (plus net receipts when calculated on a PAD District basis), minus stock change, minus crude oil losses, minus refinery inputs, minus exports.

More petrol data can be found here: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/info_glance/petroleum.html]

previous post

UPDATE: A mistake was made or the DOE revised their numbers. For the year, consumption is down close to 1%, not close to 1/2%.

UPDATE II: Large trucks do get less than 1/3 of the gas mileage of passanger cars (6.7MPG vs 22.9MPG 2005, DOT). However, they make up only 7.5% of total miles driven.(ANNUAL VEHICLE DISTANCE TRAVELED IN MILES AND RELATED DATA - 2005 BY HIGHWAY CATEGORY AND VEHICLE TYPE) If all driving cut was in passanger vehicles, it should still reduce fuel consumption by only slighly less.

Here are the weekly comparisons of 2008 over 2007, 4 week moving average 2008/2007, and the total consumption, year to end of week, 2008 over 2007:

Weekly | 4 Week Moving | Average Total
Week 1 1.12% 0.42% 1.12%
Week 2 0.62% 1.13% 0.87%
Week 3 -0.49% 0.42% 0.42%
Week 4 -1.65% -0.10% -0.10%
Week 5 -2.41% -0.99% -0.56%
Week 6 -0.45% -1.25% -0.54%
Week 7 -0.79% -1.33% -0.58%
Week 8 -0.83% -1.12% -0.61%
Week 9 -1.31% -0.85% -0.69%
Week 10 -0.29% -0.81% -0.65%
Week 11 -1.83% -1.07% -0.76%
Week 12 -1.45% -1.22% -0.82%
Week 13 -1.70% -1.32% -0.89%
Week 14 -1.96% -1.74% -0.97%
Week 15 0.98% -1.04% -0.83%
Week 16 0.57% -0.55% -0.75%
Week 17 -0.77% -0.31% -0.75%
Week 18 -0.35% 0.11% -0.73%
Week 19 -0.65% -0.30% -0.72%
Week 20 -0.78% -0.64% -0.73%
Week 21 -1.18% -0.74% -0.75%
Week 22 -3.85% -1.62% -0.89%
Week 23 -0.80% -1.66% -0.89%
Week 24 -3.54% -2.35% -1.00%