Monday, May 19, 2008


All Else Equal... Global Warming Legislation Is Stupid


Ok, we have two alternate worlds with two identical villages, the exception being that Village A has only an income tax and produces greenhouse gasses. Village B has a combination of income tax and greenhouse gas emissions taxes. Village B's tax system implemented in a way that completely eliminates greenhouse gas emission, but has no effects on its ability to meet the material need of its population; i.e., the villages have the same GDP, population growth rates, etc.

Both populations start with 2000 people.
The population growth rate is 1.3% for both villages.
The GDP growth rate is 4% for both villages.
30% of both populations have IQs sufficient to perform higher level work requiring a college degree, and do so.

Lets say Village B has a .01 chance of a 100 year storm hitting which will kill .05 of the population and destroy .05 of the economy every year. Due to its greenhouse gas emission, Village A has a .011 change of being hit by a 100 year storm. Various engineering projects are available that will reduce deaths and destruction .005. These projects require 100 civil, environmental, or marine engineers to start.

Assuming a hundred year storm absolutely will not happen until at least 100 years from now, which village is at greatest risk from a hundred year storm? Please explain why and show any calculations.

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