Cumulative Model

People store and assimilate information. Whenever we pass a bad driver on the road, we turn and look. We may not memorize the details, but we absorbe the information and add it to our model. In this case,a set of stereo types, which is part of our model of the world. Over time we recognize the most important aspects of our environment on a subconscious level, improving our driving ability and increasing our available range of perception.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Positive and Negative Risks with High Uncertainty in the Context of Syrian Refugees after Paris

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I When I first saw posts on the waves mid-east immigrants several months ago I commented, “I wonder how many ISIS and al Qaeda are among the...
3 comments:
Thursday, August 22, 2013

Warm Weather Increases Albedo in Key Regions

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guest post by Willis Eschenbach The first half of this post by Willis Eschenbach is valid, but not interesting to me. The second half is v...
8 comments:
Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Biggest Mistake in Office

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125 comments:
Sunday, May 29, 2011

Obama 2012!

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Obama 2012 Official Campaign Song
22 comments:
Friday, April 29, 2011

Borrow More... Or Else!

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What would you do if your bank threatened to raise your credit card and mortgage interest rate if you do not borrow more from them? JPMorgan...
1 comment:
Tuesday, March 08, 2011

Expenses Rising as Percentage of Disposable Income

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Data from BEA Tables 2.6 and 2.4.5U UPDATE (3-9-11): Added savings as a percentage of NDE and 12 month smoothed trendline. I believe the u...
2 comments:
Sunday, January 16, 2011

QE Haiku

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Freakonomics asks for economic Haiku Easing raises cost Uncertainty makes me save Deflation happens
Monday, November 29, 2010

Ask Not How QE Can Cause Inflation

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Ask how QE is causing disinflation.
1 comment:
Wednesday, October 13, 2010

What's Black, White, Stinks to High Heavens, and is Proud of it?

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A skunk! You racist, unpatriotic bastard.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Positive Feedbacks Exist Primarily, and Dominate Only, in Social Phenomena

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1 comment:
Thursday, June 24, 2010

McChrystal Reassigned

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This just in: General McChrystal has been reassigned out of Afghanistan. Rolling Stone has not commented on whether this will affect broade...
Friday, June 11, 2010

Fiscal Stimulus

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Eating donuts to fight a tapeworm.
Thursday, May 13, 2010

Highway Data Revised

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Last year I plotted FHWA VMT divided by total gasoline consumed in the US from January 2000 to November 2009. There was a clear downward tr...
Thursday, May 06, 2010

More Fuel Efficient Vehicles Are Not Making Us More Efficient

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The New York Times plots per capita driving and gasoline prices . Again they miss the big story. During the run up in prices since 2005, gas...
1 comment:
Monday, March 01, 2010

Krugman Keeps on Shovelling

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Don't stop shovelling Paul.
Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Road Traffic and Fuel Consumption through June 2009

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3 comments:
Tuesday, August 18, 2009

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

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The title sounds like a Repo-Auction. Ironically, a large scale Repo-Auction would be far more effective .
Saturday, August 08, 2009

Is Cash For Clunkers Actually a Good Idea?

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Especially in times like these, there is a bit of luck to it. But let’s face it, for the most part the poor are poor for a reason. They ar...
6 comments:
Friday, July 31, 2009

Sometimes, It Sucks to be Right

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Not good.
Thursday, July 30, 2009

Vehicle Miles Travelled per Gallon of Gasoline Consumed

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Price is in 10 Cent units.
2 comments:
Monday, July 13, 2009

Thanks Barry. Thanks Congress.

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I just want to say thanks for inflating long term interest rates and preventing me from refinancing and getting my interest expense low enou...
3 comments:
Friday, April 17, 2009

Vehicle Miles Travelled Per Gallon of Gasoline Consumed Since 2000

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Note that gasoline prices rose preciptously starting in 2005.
3 comments:
Friday, February 27, 2009

Congestion Trends, And Do Two Traffic Flows Exist at the Same Time?

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INRIX has released its 2008 Annual Report on congestion . (Via Tom Vanderbilt ) The key finding is "a decrease in the Travel Time Index...
16 comments:
Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Cut the Mortgage Interest Deduction

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I'll do Ed Glaeser one better. Replace the Interest Rate Deduction with a Principal Payment Deduction. Sure, it'll break some bank...
Monday, February 23, 2009

Recession in Transit Activity and Fuel Consumption and Fuel Economy

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32 comments:
Sunday, January 25, 2009

A Letter to the EPA

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Drive Sensibly Aggressive driving (speeding, rapid acceleration and braking) wastes gas. It can lower your gas mileage by 33 percent at high...
Sunday, January 11, 2009

Top Fuel Efficient Speed

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Why is there no readily available list of cars' average optimal fuel efficient speed by make, model, and year? Shouldn't that be k...
1 comment:

Consumption Tax?

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Gas taxes (to include cap-and-trade) have become very popular with intelligent, but shortsighted economists. However, the benefits they exp...
Monday, December 29, 2008

Prediction for 2009

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Failing to notice that fuel efficiency has declined the past several years as gasoline prices have risen, the media will notice that fuel ef...
3 comments:
Thursday, November 20, 2008

Induced Demand is the Whole Point of Infrastructure Investment

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Tyler Cowen , "The real problem, of course, is the quality of our decisions on infrastructure." Until people realize that Induced ...
Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Trends in Fuel Efficiency

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Analysis is done with gasoline data only for simplification. Diesel fuel is widely used for purposes other than transportation. Gasoline con...
6 comments:
Thursday, October 02, 2008

The Problem with Inflation Right Now

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I don't think cash will necessarily address the problem. There seems to be two problems. The structure of cash flows don't match th...
Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Handling the Housing Default Side of the Crisis

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Part of the problem is that when default risk went up, buying slowed and so values on homes went down. This means that for many people, if ...
2 comments:
Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Who Pays?

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The taxpayer pays. The taxpayer always pays. No. Matter. What. Everyone pays taxes and everyone is the taxpayer. When a blowup happens, i...

Best and Worst Case Scenarios

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Here's my Best Case: Nothing is done. Banks, afraid to lend to eachother and faced with watching their assets depreciate, loan to good b...
Monday, September 29, 2008

What Do You Say to a Banker That Wants to Lend to You at 6% Fixed?

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Call me when you want to lend to me at 4%!
Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Bubbles Are Purely A Monetary Phenomenon

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Monday, August 04, 2008

Fuel Efficiency

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UPDATE: This includes "Distillate Fuel Oil", which includes diesel, as well as gasoline. The data is very noisy because the Disti...
1 comment:
Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Miles Per Gallon Regular Unleaded Gasoline vs Price

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1976 to Present CPI from here . ADDED: UPDATE: Recalculated with Diesel added in .
12 comments:

Miles Per Gallon

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13 Month Moving Average Vehicle Miles Driven is from DOT . Gasoline Consumption is from EIA . My guess is that DOT over estimates VMT and/or...
7 comments:
Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Trends in Fuel Efficiency

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Fuel Efficiency is higher now than back in 1998. Efficiency Declined from 1998 unitl the end of 1999 and then improved quickly. It remained ...
3 comments:
Friday, July 25, 2008

Rational and Irrational Reaction to High Energy Prices

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Bryan Caplan links to a snippet from Richard Posner on people's resonses to high gas prices. I wonder, too, whether the recent decline ...
5 comments:
Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Gasoline Consumption and Vehicle Miles Driven

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As a percentage of the same month, one year earlier.
Monday, June 23, 2008

Two Lights

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Getting rid of traffic lights has been proposed for certain metro areas. Getting rid of stop signs has also been proposed. I think this is a...
6 comments:
Friday, June 20, 2008

High Gas Prices Drive Down Fuel Efficiency

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We are currently enduring a natural experiment on the effects of higher gas prices. While it has spurred movement toward more efficient tec...
8 comments:
Tuesday, June 17, 2008

High Gas Prices Are Causing High Gas Prices

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I've contended for a while now that high gas prices will lead to decreased efficiency . It seems I've been right. I've been loo...
4 comments:
Tuesday, June 10, 2008

How Many Carbon Accountants Does It Take To Smash A Lightbulb?

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Megan McArdle answers the unanswerable question . Somehow, she decides it's zero. Never mind that if you can't count it, you can...
2 comments:
Monday, May 19, 2008

All Else Equal... Global Warming Legislation Is Stupid

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POP QUIZ! Ok, we have two alternate worlds with two identical villages, the exception being that Village A has only an income tax and produc...
2 comments:
Thursday, May 15, 2008

Giffen Behavior in Driving

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One more plausible rational reason why fuel efficiency continues to decline . Perhaps there is Giffen Behavior in driving. If the cost of d...
1 comment:
Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Fuel Efficiency Continues to Decline

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Kevin Drum observes that people respond to higher gas prices by driving less . He fails to notice that along with the decline in fuel produc...
33 comments:
Thursday, May 08, 2008

Should People Slow Down? Maybe, An Envelope Calculation

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31556926 Seconds/Year (Google search) 303824646 Population of US (2007 est, cia world factbook) $13860000000000...
4 comments:
Sunday, March 02, 2008

Uncertainty, Considering What We Don't Know

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Like AGW itself, the cost of moderate regulation is probably greatly exaggerated. It won't cause the end of civilization. But what if we...
2 comments:

This is just hillarious!

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This is out of Oxford! It's nice that people are starting to think more about what we don't know, but it'd be nicer if they'...
Thursday, February 28, 2008

$4 Gas

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Bush is suprized that some analysts say we'll see $4 gas this summer. Sure, it may happen. It's even plausible that it'll stay ...
Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Measuring Your Carbon Footprint Made Easy

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This article (via ClimateDebateDaily.com) and these posts by Arnold Kling got a chuckle out of me. CDD introduces the New Yorker article ...
3 comments:
Thursday, November 01, 2007

National Horn Day

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Conservation effort. We need a National Horn Day! One day a year. At every traffic light. When the light turns green. Everyone presses in...
7 comments:
Friday, August 03, 2007

Make Love And War

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Econlog had a post on The Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids last week and the Economist had a post on Children as a Public Good . One posi...

Tyler Cowen on Traffic

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Knowing that I'd eventually breakdown and buy Tyler Cowen's new book , I pre-ordered and participated in his personal-podcast experi...
Friday, July 20, 2007

Indulgances

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In an effort to stave off Global Warming, the Vatican has become "Carbon Neutral" by growing trees in Hungry . Whooops! Oh the iro...

Is Gasoline a Giffen Good?

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The Economist asks. I think I know the answer. Update: What I describe isn't Giffen behavior, Giffen behavior is substituting a superio...
Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Why Peak Torque

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Prompted by previous posts here and here and here . A simplified description: The load on the engine is about same regardless of which gea...
4 comments:
Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Try Telling That To Somone Who Graduated In 2000

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Wow! Just wow!
Wednesday, May 30, 2007

High Gas Prices Are Destroying My Fuel Economy

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People think they're saving gas by taking it easy on the throttle, THEY ARE NOT!! I'm hitting more traffic lights and having to sit ...
17 comments:
Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Is Crow an Idiot?

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Does a Barrymore shit in the woods? (see also Love in the Time of Cholera )
Sunday, April 01, 2007

I'm Fucking Pissed

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I'm not a violent person. But right now I'd like to curbie a few people at Apple. I have chronic pain problems. Lot's of issue...
Sunday, March 25, 2007

Why Do Handicapped Drivers Drive Like They're Fucking Handicapped

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Just askin'?
Friday, March 23, 2007

Too F'ing Funny

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I'm tempted to give this a try .
Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Naughty Elf

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I certainly don't hold "Megan's view" on AGW policy against her. She basically assumed the Economists position when she s...
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